The Lead Feed

Welcome to the January 2023 edition of NC Economy Watch: an update on what’s happening in the North Carolina economy and what it means for you, brought to you by the Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the NC Department of Commerce. In this edition, we provide an update on hiring challenges in our state. The labor market has eased slightly in recent months, but hiring conditions remain historically tight, and demographic trends suggest labor shortages may become a routine feature of life during future periods of economic growth.

In November, not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates decreased in 92 of North Carolina's 100 counties.

North Carolina’s elementary and secondary schools have been among the slowest sectors of our state’s economy to return to pre-pandemic employment levels. While many other sectors have struggled to hire and retain workers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a shortage of teachers as well as cafeteria workers, bus drivers, and other non-instructional support staff presents a two-fold workforce challenge: a failure to fill these jobs today impacts our ability to prepare our children for the jobs of the future. In this article, we use data from the North Carolina Common Follow-up System (CFS) to demonstrate that an increase in retirements and a gap in the talent pipeline are driving this shortfall in school workers.

North Carolina's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from October’s revised rate of 3.8 percent.

Which industries in North Carolina are most exposed to automation related employment disruptions? What does industry automation exposure mean for workers, workforce and economic development leaders, policymakers, and businesses? This piece examines these questions by applying automation exposure data at the industry level.

While many sectors have steadily regained employment following the COVID-19 recession, the childcare service workforce continues to face a significant shortfall. In this article, we use data from the North Carolina Common Follow-up System (CFS) to show the shortfall in childcare service employment can be primarily attributed to increased worker outflows among younger childcare workers to other higher-paying industries or out of the workforce altogether.

In October, not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased in 99 of North Carolina's 100 counties.

North Carolina's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from September’s revised rate of 3.6 percent.

NCcareers.org raises awareness of different careers for all North Carolinians by providing access to career information

In September, not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates decreased in 99 of North Carolina's 100 counties.

Recent American Community Survey (ACS) data for 2021 provide insights into youth engagement in North Carolina over the past two years.

North Carolina's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from August’s revised rate of 3.5 percent.

A recent LEAD presentation to a Triad-area health care workforce group offers insights on economic trends in the health care industry.

Previous research has predicted that technological progress will cause widespread unemployment by replacing human laborers with machines, while other more recent analyses stress that automation may lead to disruptions for some occupations but finds widespread destruction of jobs unlikely. This analysis examines automation’s potential risk to North Carolina’s labor market, finding that automation will disrupt employment in some occupations but machines are unlikely to replace large segments of human labor.

Does timing matter for college graduates entering the workforce? Beginning a career during an economic downturn can have long-term wage implications for graduates in the form of “recession scarring.” We find evidence wage scarring effects disappear over time and appear minimal for the class of 2020 due to tight labor market conditions.