The Lead Feed

Each month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia publishes a leading index, looking six months ahead, and a coincident index, tracking current conditions. We will explore where the leading index predicts the North Carolina economy will be in six months, what goes into creating these indices, and whether the leading index does a good job of predicting economic trends.

The unemployment rate for states and local areas is a blurry snapshot when it is initially released. This picture becomes clearer over time as the rate is subsequently revised. The following article explains why these revisions, which can be quite large, are a natural consequence of how the unemployment rate is estimated.

An oft-ignored side effect of an aging workforce is its impact on the average wage. Increasing numbers of workers in North Carolina are now in the prime of their careers and are being compensated accordingly, driving up earnings across the state. But what happens when these mature workers retire and are replaced by younger workers at the lower end of the pay scale?

While the national labor force participation rate has been declining for the past decade, the participation rate of those aged 55 and older has been on the rise since the mid-1990s. In this post, we address some confusion surrounding declining national labor force participation rates and the role Boomers are playing in that trend, as well as the situation in North Carolina.

The Millennial generation (persons born 1980 or later) is within reach of surpassing the Boomer generation (those born from 1946 to 1964) as the largest segment of North Carolina’s adult population. As older generations retire from North Carolina’s labor force, this article asks whether younger cohorts will be able to take their place.

Economic growth in North Carolina has progressed at a steady pace since the worst of the Great Recession. However, several data points show that the state’s labor market is growing less dynamic, with fewer workers hopping from job to job and overall hiring and firing activity stuck at unusually low levels. The following article illustrates this troubling trend using data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics and explains what implications it might have for the economic health of our state.

Experts around the country have started noting a long-term decline in new business start-ups in the United States. Traditionally a backbone of the American economy, small businesses are being replaced by longer living, older companies.  Is this trend also occurring in North Carolina?

Happy National Manufacturing Day! The American South is often considered a major manufacturing hub of North America. In addition, North Carolina specifically plays a significant role in that regional status. So, in light of today's national spotlight on manufacturing, let’s investigate those claims using some manufacturing output and employment data relevant to both the Southeast and to North Carolina.

Many labor market watchers contend that “discouraged” workers are exiting North Carolina’s labor force, causing the unemployment rate to overstate the extent of the economic recovery. This article demonstrates why this contention is false and how, even after considering discouraged and “marginally attached” workers, North Carolina’s labor market continues to show signs of improvement.

LEAD recently released the results of the 2014 Employer Needs Survey, a scientific survey of nearly 800 public- and private-sector employers from across the state which sought to identify hiring difficulties, recruitment strategies, and other employer needs.

LEAD recently unveiled a new online resource called NC TOWER (Tool for Online Workforce and Education Reporting), which provides data on employment rates, wages, and higher education enrollment for graduates of the North Carolina Community College System and University of North Carolina system schools.

The unemployment rate is the most cited and least understood official indicator of labor market conditions. This post takes on some common myths and explains what the unemployment rate really tells us about the state of the economy.

The Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) is happy to launch the LEAD Feed, which will deliver timely communication and analysis around a variety of economic and labor market topics drawing on the knowledge and expertise of LEAD staff. It is our goal to meet the need for a timely, accessible means of communication for short, informative articles about economic and labor conditions in our state, the nation, and around the world.

North Carolina pork producers were making significant gains in exporting to Russia in early 2014 as they complied with new trade restrictions. But yet another import ban on U.S. and E.U. agricultural products could derail that progress.

Are traditional brick-and-mortar storefronts becoming a thing of the past? If you’re a reader of the Wall Street Journal, you may have recently run across news headlines like these proclaiming the demise of traditional retailers: Shoppers Are Fleeing Physical Stores, The Great Mall Exodus, and Macy’s Confronts the Crisis of the American Mall. So is this true? And more importantly, is this happening in North Carolina?