Welcome to the September 2025 edition of NC Economy Watch: an update on what’s happening in the North Carolina economy and what it means for you, brought to you by the Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the NC Department of Commerce.
In this edition of NC Economy Watch, we take stock of the economic recovery in Western North Carolina following the impact of Hurricane Helene. The region’s economic recovery began in earnest in November 2024 and has shown signs of progress with each passing month. However, as more data come in, we are learning that the economic impact of Helene was larger than initially estimated, and so far, by several measures, counties affected by the storm have experienced an incomplete economic recovery.
Western North Carolina Faces an Incomplete Recovery After Hurricane Helene
There was never any doubt that the Western North Carolina economy would eventually recover from the impact of Hurricane Helene. Economic activity often rebounds following natural disasters, and despite experiencing arguably the worst disaster in state history, areas impacted by Helene had a relatively high degree of economic momentum before the storm hit and remain among our state’s most desirable locations.
Indeed, Western North Carolina’s post-Helene economic recovery began in earnest in November 2024 and has shown signs of progress with each passing month. However, as more data come in, we are learning that the economic impact of Helene was larger than initially estimated, and so far, by several measures, counties affected by the storm have experienced an incomplete economic recovery.
Employment statistics are the most closely followed economic indicators, but they are typically published as preliminary estimates when they are first released, and these estimates can sometimes miss the mark. Preliminary estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey indicated that the Asheville metro area, which includes Buncombe, Henderson, and Madison counties, experienced an over-the-year job loss of only 2% following the impact of Helene in October 2024, comparable to other recent natural disasters. More comprehensive employment statistics just released from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) paint a very different picture, showing that job losses in the Asheville metro area were nearly four times larger than initially estimated [Figure 1]. Moreover, these data show that the Asheville metro area maintained an over-the-year employment shortfall of 4% as of March 2025, compared to only a 1% shortfall in the preliminary numbers.
Figure 1
Data for counties outside the Asheville metro area aren’t available from CES, but they are reported in the more comprehensive QCEW numbers. To gauge the broader geographic impact of Helene, we also calculate job losses for a seven-county area that experienced a sustained increase in joblessness following the storm (consisting of Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Madison, Mitchell, Rutherford, and Yancey Counties). This region saw employment decline 7% over the year in October 2024 and maintained an over-the-year shortfall of 3% as of March 2025.
Job losses can be driven by three factors: (i) a decline in employer demand for labor, (ii) a decline in the supply of workers, or (iii) hiring barriers. Thus far, there appears to be little to no shortfall in labor demand; the number of unfilled job openings in the Asheville metro area remained high throughout the storm and its aftermath. It is possible, although difficult to verify, that the region experienced a loss of population in the wake of the storm, resulting in fewer workers being available to fill open positions. It’s also possible that some individuals who were affected by the storm have barriers to reemployment, such as post-traumatic stress or transportation challenges, which prevent them from accepting a new job. Indeed, the unemployment rate in many Helene-impacted counties is currently higher than it was a year ago, suggesting that some long-term unemployed individuals might be struggling to return to work.
Other measures of economic activity are also signaling an incomplete recovery, with some indicators quickly returning to pre-hurricane levels while others lag behind.
Monthly taxable sales and purchases, a proxy for consumer spending, declined by around one-fifth after Hurricane Helene in both the Asheville metro area and the broader seven-county region, but recovered to prior-year levels by December 2024 and continued to rise throughout the first half of 2025 [Figure 2]. We also find similar patterns when examining data on electricity demand, suggesting that, as a whole, there is as much economic activity occurring in the region now as there was before the storm.
Figure 2
At the same time, despite the apparent recovery in retail sales and electricity demand, there are persistent signs of trouble in the region’s tourism industry. The summer tourism season has gotten off to a rocky start, with passenger traffic at Asheville Regional Airport down 6% from year-ago levels in June 2025, while lodging revenue in Buncombe County was down 21% from year-ago levels.
Nearly one year after Hurricane Helene, there’s still a lot we don’t know about the storm’s economic impact and Western North Carolina’s subsequent recovery. Comprehensive employment data from QCEW are published at an approximately six-month lag; we won’t receive data for the summer of 2025 until early next year. County-level population estimates for 2025 won’t be released until spring 2026. Gross domestic product (GDP) data for 2025 won’t be available at the county level until December 2026. And it will be a long time before we have economic numbers covering the region’s ever-important fall 2025 tourism season.
That said, there are some conclusions we can draw based on what we know so far:
Hurricane Helene left a large imprint on the Western North Carolina economy – even larger than initially estimated. While some economic indicators quickly returned to pre-hurricane levels in the months following the storm, other indicators have fallen short of a full recovery.
Addressing individuals’ barriers to reemployment and nurturing a recovery in the tourism industry will be key challenges in the months ahead. But although the economic recovery remains incomplete, the progress we’ve seen so far demonstrates the resilience of the Western North Carolina economy and shows that its best days are still to come.
For inquiries and requests, please contact:
Meihui Bodane, Assistant Secretary for Policy, Research and Strategy
NC Department of Commerce, Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD)