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In this edition of NC Economy Watch, we unpack recent estimates indicating that North Carolina’s labor force is smaller now than it was a year ago. Our labor force is under pressure from slowing population growth and a decades-long decline in the labor force participation rate. Given the persistence of these trends, North Carolinians should prepare for the possibility that our labor force may continue to shrink in the years to come.

Over the past two decades, a smaller share of bachelor’s-level Education graduates have entered the Educational Services sector, according to data from the Common Follow-up System (CFS). Between 2004 and 2024, both first-year employment and longer-term employment in the sector declined, signaling a meaningful shift in the post-graduation career pathways for Education majors. This article examines the trend in Education bachelor’s degree graduates from UNC system schools working in the sector over time.

For over a decade, all of North Carolina’s eight Prosperity Zones scored below the national benchmark for wage rates. Despite this, North Carolina has ranked among the top two states for business for six consecutive years, achieved above-average employment rates and maintained consistent educational attainment across the state. North Carolina is succeeding at attracting business and growing economic opportunity, but our next economic development challenge is ensuring better-paying jobs for our workers.

The Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) AI Supplement provides insight into how North Carolina businesses are using AI, the reported impact on employment, and why many have yet to adopt the technology.

Employment and wage growth diverged across North Carolina's counties in 2025: jobs grew in half of the state’s counties, with most of the net gain concentrated in a handful of large or suburban counties, while wages outpaced inflation in most. This post, the second in a two-part series on North Carolina's 2025 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, draws on the newly released federal-state QCEW program, a partnership between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and state labor market information entities.

North Carolina's wages outpaced national inflation in 2025, with the average weekly wage rising faster than consumer prices. Employment also grew faster than the national rate, with most sectors adding jobs over the year. This post, the first in a two-part series on North Carolina's 2025 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, draws on the newly released federal-state QCEW program, a partnership between the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and state labor market information entities.

Over the past several years, Computer Science has been a field associated with strong demand and high wages, yet the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and broader changes in the technology labor market have introduced new uncertainties about the field’s future. Using data from the Common Follow-up System (CFS), this article examines two decades of Computer Science graduates from UNC System schools to better understand how changing employment and wage patterns may inform the outlook for these graduates.

In this edition of NC Economy Watch, we assess employment conditions in North Carolina’s manufacturing sector. The sector has struggled in recent decades, and those struggles persist to the present day, but manufacturers entered 2026 signaling increased optimism, and while job growth in the sector remains sluggish, the future of manufacturing is likely to be anything but stagnant.

The 2026 UNC System Workforce Alignment Report identified Psychology as a discipline where projected workforce demand is poised to exceed the future supply of graduates. Using data from the Common Follow-up System (CFS), this article explores two decades of trends in graduation patterns, graduate school enrollment, and employment outcomes for Psychology majors across UNC System institutions.

A gradual but persistent labor market slowdown has made life increasingly difficult for jobseekers across North Carolina and nationwide. This slowdown has hampered efforts to extend job opportunities to populations on the margins of the labor force, including individuals who face barriers to gainful employment after exiting prison. This article uses recently updated data from the North Carolina Reentry Outcome Reporting System (NC-RORS) to show how the current labor market situation has impacted the employment outcomes of formerly incarcerated people in our state.