Author: Trevor Church
In September 2024, Hurricane Helene carved a devastating path across the Southeastern United States, leaving an indelible mark on Western North Carolina's economic landscape. The storm caused estimated damage within North Carolina reaching up to $59.6 billion, establishing it as one of the costliest hurricanes in recent history. FEMA issued a disaster declaration (FEMA-4827-DR) covering 39 counties and the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in North Carolina (Figure 1). Since the hurricane’s landfall, LEAD has continued to monitor the region’s economic conditions using a range of data sources. With the release of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for the second quarter following the storm, we now have a clearer picture of how industry employment has been affected across the hardest-hit areas. This blog leverages those data to provide insight into early labor market disruption and emerging recovery patterns. We focus specifically on the 26 counties designated as 'Permanent Work' – a classification reflecting the extensive damage that necessitates long-term restoration and hazard mitigation efforts.
Figure 1
Pre-Hurricane Employment Landscape
Prior to Hurricane Helene, the ‘Permanent Work’ (hereby referred to as Western North Carolina or WNC) - designated counties represented nearly 14% of North Carolina's workforce, with approximately 667,000 of the state's 4.9 million jobs. Buncombe County provided the most jobs (138,000), followed by Catawba County (90,000 jobs), and Gaston County (80,000 jobs).
Figure 2
Employment across WNC spans a variety of industries – led by Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Manufacturing; and the Leisure and Hospitality sectors (see Figure 3). These four sectors account for two out of every three jobs in the region.
Figure 3
Economic Disruption
While not available in real time, QCEW data reflects the economic disruption that unfolded in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, particularly in terms of employment losses across the region. From September to October 2024, the total employment across all industries in Western North Carolina decreased by nearly 19,000 jobs, representing a 2.8% decline. Figure 4 illustrates the change in employment, revealing the hurricane’s impact on the regional workforce.
Figure 4
Several counties experienced substantial job losses with Buncombe County seeing the largest decline - nearly 13,000 jobs or 9.3%. Historically, employment in the county and region increases during October to support tourism - for example, Buncombe County employment rose 1.6% from September to October in 2023. Avery County experienced the sharpest percentage decline, with employment falling 13.5% or around 1,000 jobs compared to a 3.4% gain in the same period in 2023. Mitchell County and Yancey County also saw significant declines, at 6.5% and 11.4%, respectively. See Table 1 for employment changes for all affected counties.
In addition to geographic differences, the impact of Hurricane Helene varied widely across industries. Employment data shows significant shifts in sector employment across the region between September and October 2024. Leisure and Hospitality experienced the most decline, losing 15.6% of jobs (or approximately 14,000). Other notable sector-wide decreases include Manufacturing with a loss of 1.6% of jobs (compared to a modest loss of 0.2% during the same period in 2023), and Other Services declining by 4.9% (versus a 1.5% gain in 2023). However, not all sectors lost jobs during this time. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities added nearly 3,000 jobs and Education and Health Services saw an increase of about 2,000 jobs. Table 2 presents an aggregated employment change by sector across all WNC counties for both 2024 and 2023.
Recovery
Following the initial decline, jobs began to rebound, though they have not fully returned to the previous year’s levels. Figure 5 shows a sharp drop in employment coinciding with Hurricane Helene’s impact in October 2024, compared to 2023, followed by a gradual recovery. Job levels have shown signs of stability.
Figure 5
Conclusion
This blog provides an initial analysis of regional employment changes in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. While Western North Carolina experienced significant job losses across key industries, the Leisure and Hospitality sector was the hardest hit. Buncombe County saw the largest numerical decrease in employment, while Avery County experienced the highest percentage loss.
As more data becomes available, we will continue to monitor and report on economic recovery across the region, highlighting emerging trends and areas of resilience. This analysis offers an early snapshot of employment changes within FEMA’s designated counties. Future research will focus on the Asheville Metropolitan Statistical Area, specifically Buncombe, Henderson, and Madison counties - to provide deeper understanding of the regional economic dynamics and recovery patterns.