Author: Maggie Smith
Manufacturing has long been one of North Carolina’s economic pillars. Despite a significant decline in employment in the past few decades, manufacturing is still the third largest employing sector in the state and contributes the largest share to North Carolina’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, this sector faces a growing demographic challenge. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) show that workers aged 55 and older now make up a larger share of manufacturing employment than ever before. This shift raises important questions about how retirements could affect productivity, labor supply, and local economies, especially in regions that rely heavily on manufacturing.
An Older Manufacturing Workforce in North Carolina
Across all industries, the share of workers aged 55 and older has increased in North Carolina, reflecting the broader demographic trend of an aging population. However, the rise has been more pronounced in the manufacturing sector (see Figure 1). In 1994, workers aged 55 and older made up roughly 12 percent of manufacturing employment, nearly identical to the statewide average of 11 percent across all sectors. By 2024, that gap widened with 30 percent of the manufacturing workforce aged 55 and over, compared to 24 percent across all industries.
Figure 1
The growing concentration of older workers in manufacturing presents challenges for employers and local economies alike. As experienced employees retire, they take with them decades of accumulated skills and institutional knowledge that are difficult to replace. The data does not reveal which jobs these older workers hold, but many may be business owners, executives, or highly specialized technicians whose departure could be particularly disruptive. Without clear succession plans, the loss of such key personnel can threaten not only individual companies but, in some cases, the continued operation of facilities in those communities. Local economies may also feel the effects if retirements lead to production slowdowns, job losses, and reduced economic activity, particularly in counties where manufacturing represents a significant share of local employment.
Where Retirement Risk Is Highest
Manufacturing’s retirement exposure is not evenly distributed across North Carolina. Some counties rely more heavily on manufacturing and have an older manufacturing workforce, putting them at greater near-term risk of retirements. Figure 2 shows county-level manufacturing retirement risk, with darker shades indicating higher potential exposure.
The data in this map measures manufacturing workers aged 55 and older as a share of total county employment to determine how much a local economy depends on manufacturing employment near retirement age. While the share of 55+ workers within manufacturing shows how aging affects the sector itself, this broader measure captures how retirements in manufacturing could impact the county’s overall workforce and economic base.
Figure 2
Counties such as Alexander, Bladen, Randolph, and Catawba have the highest manufacturing retirement exposure, with manufacturing workers nearing retirement making up 10-16% of all county employment. In contrast, counties in large metro areas like Wake, Mecklenburg, and Durham show much lower exposure, around 1-3%, largely because manufacturing represents a smaller share of their overall employment base. Metro areas also tend to have a younger workforce overall compared with rural parts of the state.
[See full county-level data here]
Conclusion
North Carolina’s manufacturing sector remains a cornerstone of the state’s economy, but its aging workforce presents a growing challenge. As more experienced workers near retirement, the risk of skill shortages and production disruptions will likely rise across the sector. Manufacturing supports a network of suppliers and services, and when production slows, it can reduce local business activity and household income. In counties where manufacturing is the dominant industry, these ripple effects can be especially significant and may contribute to broader economic disruption.
By recognizing these demographic trends now, state and local leaders can take proactive steps to build a stronger talent pipeline, expand workforce training, and support knowledge transfer within firms. Addressing retirement risk today can help ensure the continued competitiveness of North Carolina’s manufacturing industry for decades to come.