Welcome to the June 2026 edition of NC Economy Watch: an update on what’s happening in the North Carolina economy and what it means for you, brought to you by the Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the NC Department of Commerce.
In this edition of NC Economy Watch, we assess employment conditions in North Carolina’s manufacturing sector. The sector has struggled in recent decades, and those struggles persist to the present day, but manufacturers entered 2026 signaling increased optimism, and while job growth in the sector remains sluggish, the future of manufacturing is likely to be anything but stagnant.
Manufacturers Signal Optimism Despite a Downturn in Factory Employment
Manufacturing was an important source of job growth in North Carolina during the early-to-mid 20th century, but the sector has struggled in recent decades, and those struggles persist to the present day. Our state’s manufacturing sector finished 2025 with 3,600 fewer jobs than it had the year before, marking three consecutive years of net job losses and reflecting a broader, nationwide manufacturing slowdown.1
Of course, manufacturing is a highly diversified sector, and some areas of manufacturing have performed better than others. The Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing subsector, which includes the Toyota battery plant in Randolph County, has been a standout success, adding 2,800 jobs last year [Figure 1]. However, most of North Carolina’s manufacturing subsectors shed jobs last year, with Transportation Equipment Manufacturing and Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing experiencing particularly severe net job losses. (A net job loss means that even though some companies may have added jobs, those gains were outweighed by even larger job losses at firms that downsized.)
Figure 1
Manufacturers entered 2026 signaling increased optimism amid a rise in new orders, with the hope that more demand for manufactured goods could lead to a resurgence in factory employment. This optimism is currently reflected in surveys of employers in our region: the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s monthly manufacturing survey indicates that more firms expect to add jobs over the next six months than we’ve seen since 2022, when the current manufacturing slowdown began [Figure 2].
Figure 2
There are certainly reasons to temper our optimism about manufacturing’s growth prospects. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to higher energy costs and supply-chain disruptions, creating challenges for some domestic manufacturers. In the longer term, our office projects that North Carolina’s manufacturing sector will experience almost zero net job growth between 2024 and 2034.
At the same time, despite the likelihood of flat employment growth, there will still be plenty of employment opportunities in manufacturing. Our office projects that Production Occupations, which are found primarily in manufacturing, will generate nearly 360,000 job openings over the next decade as existing workers leave the field and new workers are needed to take their place. And the future is likely to be anything but stagnant, with new technologies leading to evolving employer needs and requiring our state’s workforce and education systems to continuously adapt in response to the shifting manufacturing landscape.
For inquiries and requests, please contact:
Meihui Bodane, Assistant Secretary for Policy, Research and Strategy
NC Department of Commerce, Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD)
- 1
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for December 2025, rounded to the nearest hundred.