Author: Trevor Church
When you hear about job growth or job losses in the news, do you wonder where those numbers come from? The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, a federal-state cooperative program, is administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in partnership with state agencies like North Carolina's Department of Commerce Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD). The CES represents the gold standard for reporting timely changes in employment levels in the United States.
More commonly known as the "payroll" or "establishment" survey, the CES collects data from nearly all government agencies and a sample of businesses to produce monthly estimates of the number of workers, hours worked, and earnings at the national, state, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) levels for nonfarm employment. Estimates are released each month for the prior month, providing data users with critical and timely employment data that describe the health of the U.S. economy and labor markets. The CES data serves as a crucial input for understanding workforce trends, guiding public policy, informing wage negotiations, supporting economic research, and helping businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about the economy.
BLS and states play different roles in producing and publishing CES data. BLS funds and administers the CES program, conducts the monthly survey, and then constructs and publishes monthly employment estimates. The state’s role is to review these estimates, give feedback on estimates, and provide contextual information regarding local events that may impact estimates. This collaborative approach provides a comprehensive view of employment trends across different regions and sectors both within states and nationally.
It’s important to remember when interpreting CES data that the initial numbers released each month are estimates based on survey responses. Because businesses have a limited time to report their data before publication, CES estimates are considered preliminary when first released each month. To ensure accuracy, BLS continues to collect and process responses after the initial release, revising to incorporate data from late respondents. The revision process varies by geographic scale: national statistics are typically revised for two months following the preliminary release, while state and area-level statistics are revised for one month following the preliminary release.
The CES estimates also undergo an annual revision process. This process, also known as benchmarking, adjusts the survey estimates to align with actual counts of employment from administrative tax data. These revisions incorporate less timely, but more comprehensive data to present the most accurate estimate of employment possible. To maintain accuracy and reliability of these critical economic indicators, it is crucial for employers to complete the survey promptly and accurately. Employer participation in the CES survey ensures that the employment data provides the most reliable snapshot of the economy, supporting informed decision-making in both public and private sectors.
The most recent CES reports for NC and the US are available on the BLS website, and also on LEAD’s Demand Driven Data Delivery (D4) website. The D4 page allows North Carolina users to access state- and area-level employment data, view trends by industry and region, and generate custom tables, making it easier to analyze and interpret labor market information.
For more information on the CES program: