Author: Oleks Movchan
When we think about economic booms, we picture prosperity: jobs everywhere, wages climbing, and opportunity knocking. But here’s the twist - those same booms might quietly discourage education. Why? Because when the job market is sizzling, the opportunity cost of staying in school skyrockets. Why sit in a classroom when you can earn a paycheck right now?
Data from NC TOWER and the Labor Supply and Demand Analyzer tell the story loud and clear. In 2021 and 2022 – the tightest job markets on record with just 1.1 and 0.9 job seekers per job opening – high school graduates rushed to work. Employment rates soared to 77%, while college enrollment dipped to 63% and 64%, the lowest in a decade (except for 2020’s COVID anomaly). Compare that to 2014, when the job market was slack (3 seekers per job opening): enrollment was nearly 69%, and employment lagged at 71%.
There is no single right answer to whether you should work or enroll during a boom. For some, immediate employment provides essential income and valuable work experience. For others, the long-term earnings premium of a degree outweighs short-term gains. While a strong labor market makes jobs plentiful today, economic cycles are inevitable. When the next recession hits and job openings shrink, what happens to those competing against workers with degrees and training for fewer opportunities? The tightest job markets don't last, but the credentials and specialized skills you build are yours for life.
More data and insights are available on NC TOWER. The dataset underlying this story can be downloaded here.