For over a decade, all of North Carolina’s eight Prosperity Zones scored below the national benchmark for wage rates. Despite this, North Carolina has ranked among the top two states for business for six consecutive years, achieved above-average employment rates and maintained consistent educational attainment across the state. North Carolina is succeeding at attracting business and growing economic opportunity, but our next economic development challenge is ensuring better-paying jobs for our workers.
This post examines economic vitality across North Carolina’s eight Prosperity Zones using LEAD’s NC County Economic Vitality Index (EVI) Dashboard, which measures county-level economic vitality relative to the national average’s component score of 100 across four indicators: unemployment, wages, income and education. Scores above 100 indicate better performance than the national average, and scores below 100 indicate worse performance.
Economic Conditions in Most Regions Trail the Nation
Anchored by the Research Triangle and Charlotte Metro Areas, North Central (107.0) and Southwestern (103.1) were the only Prosperity Zones with composite EVI scores above the national average (100) in 2024. The other six Prosperity Zones scored below the national benchmark, with the Sandhills (South Central) ranking lowest at 82.2.
Two Major Metro Areas Have Led for a Decade
This gap of EVI scores among Prosperity Zones is not new. North Central and Southwestern Prosperity Zones have scored near or above the national average (100) consistently since 2015, while the remaining six Prosperity Zones have trailed behind the national benchmark for the entire 10-year period (2015-2024). While this gap is notable, North Carolina’s 10-year trend line still tells a positive story. Every Prosperity Zone has improved its composite score over the past decade, with the lowest-scoring region, the Sandhills (South Central), improving from 76.2 to 82.2, reflecting broad economic progress across the state.
NC Is Improving Across Nearly Every Measure – Except Wages
A closer look at the four EVI components – unemployment, wages, income and education –reveals where North Carolina’s economy is succeeding and where it is lagging. Unemployment rates have improved across nearly every Prosperity Zone since 2015. North Carolina saw unemployment rise during the COVID-19 pandemic, but notably less than the national average with seven of the eight Prosperity Zones scoring over 100 on the unemployment index in 2020. By 2024, this statistic remained stable with seven of eight Prosperity Zones outperforming national averages in unemployment rates.
Education scores (measured by the number of adults over the age of 25 with at least a high school degree) were consistently high and improving statewide. In 2024, half of the Prosperity Zones scored above the national benchmark, with the other half scoring just below national average. The lowest scoring zone, Northwestern, was only three points away with a score of 97.0. Even our lowest composite scoring Prosperity Zone, the Sandhills (South Central) achieved a near national average score of 99 on the education index – making it their highest scoring indicator.
The biggest outlier is wages. No Prosperity Zone has scored at or above the national benchmark on the wage index from 2015-2024. North Central, the highest-scoring Prosperity Zone overall, only saw a 3.5-point gain in wage index over a decade. Southwestern’s wage index declined slightly from 94.4 to 93.6, and Piedmont Triad (Central)’s declined from 78.1 to 75.9. Low scoring Prosperity Zones have remained stagnant for the past decade with wage index scores in the low-to-mid 60s and 70s and no substantial movement toward the national average.
Income Adds Nuance to Wage Scores
In North Central and Southwestern, household income index scores exceed national benchmarks at 111.2 and 105.2 despite both zones scoring below 100 on wage index. This suggests that non-wage income sources, such as investment returns and retirement payments, likely contribute to the gap between income and wage index. Across the other six zones, income scores also exceeded wage scores in 2024; ranging from about a 6 point difference in Piedmont Triad (Central) to a 22 point difference in Southeast. Yet, these six zones also remain well below the national benchmark of 100 on both measures. This suggests that non-wage income sources in NC’s lower-scoring Prosperity Zones are present, but not sufficient to offset the substantial wage gaps.
Low Wages are Dragging Down Economic Vitality Across the State
The wage gap is particularly consequential for the six Prosperity Zones scoring below the national composite score benchmark of 100. North Central and Southwestern composite scores are above the 100 benchmark in part because their strong unemployment, income, and education scores offset their below-average wages. The remaining six zones have no such offset. With wage rates scoring low-to-mid 60s and 70s, and other indicators essentially at or above national averages, wages appear to be the primary factor keeping composite scores below 100 across North Carolina. The next step in improving North Carolina’s economic vitality is not attracting more jobs, but attracting higher-paying, high-quality jobs to finally offset this wage gap.
Explore the Data
Explore more Economic Vitality data through the NC County Economic Vitality Index Dashboard at Analytics - LEAD.
Methodology Note: Prosperity Zones in this analysis reflect population-weighted averages of county-level EVI scores. Each county’s score was multiplied by its population, summed across all counties in the region and divided by the total region population, ensuring that counties with larger populations contributed proportionally to each Prosperity Zone score. Formula: Prosperity Zone Score = Sum(County Score x County Population) / Sum(County Population)