Author: Jeff Rosenthal
The Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce has recently produced long term employment projections for the 2018-2028 period. We plan to have several short blogs to provide highlights of the findings.
This fourth summary will look at education requirements and projected employment.
In 2018, occupations requiring no formal education or only a high school diploma* accounted for 63.7% of total employment; however, this is projected to decline to 62.6% by 2028. In contrast, the share of occupations requiring education beyond high school will expand moderately (Table 3). Through 2028, occupations that require a Master’s, Doctoral, or professional degree are projected to grow the fastest, with annual growth rate slightly higher than those requiring a Bachelor’s degree. Occupations with at least a Bachelor’s degree are projected to gain 114,000 jobs annually.
Still, occupations that require a High School diploma or equivalent, or no formal education, will have more job openings than all other occupations combined – over 423,000 each year. While these occupations will experience the most growth due to the employment size, their average annual openings are largely driven by high transfer and exit rates.
Table 1. Projected Employment by BLS Minimum Education Required for Entry
| Minimum Education Requirement | Empl. Estimate 2018 | Empl. 2018, % of Total | Empl. Estimate 2028 | Empl. 2028, % of Total | Percent Change | Net New Jobs Growth | Average Annual Openings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High school diploma (or equivalent) or No formal educational credential | 3,052,017 | 63.7% | 3,187,773 | 62.6% | 4.45% | 135,756 | 423,404 |
| Associate's degree, Postsecondary non-degree award or Some college | 539,221 | 11.3% | 582,696 | 11.4% | 8.06% | 43,475 | 60,678 |
| Bachelor's degree | 1,011,022 | 21.1% | 1,112,549 | 21.8% | 10.04% | 101,527 | 98,640 |
| Master’s, Doctoral or professional degree | 189,560 | 4.0% | 211,141 | 4.1% | 11.38% | 21,581 | 15,318 |
Additional resources for the 2018-2028 Employment Projections can be found from the links below:
• Projection Summary: North Carolina Employment Projections 2018-2028
• Impact of COVID-19 pandemic and response efforts on the NC Employment Projections
• Projections Data by Industry and Occupation
Figure 1. Share of all Projected Jobs in North Carolina in 2028 by Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Minimum Education Required for Entry
*Based on the BLS entry-level education requirement scale:
https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/education/tech.htm